AccuScore: Texans big players; Cowboys, Jets drop

The biggest shakeup in the AFC came from the AFC South. The Texans not only impressed everyone by beating the Colts, but showed their running game and defense are rapidly catching up with their passing game in the league rankings. They jumped 31 percentage points. The Titans were also impressive, but their win over the Raiders does not have the same impact as football jerseys
beating the projected division leader. The Colts are still expected to win this division with a 42-percent chance, but the Colts still were among the biggest drops (17.5 percent) this week. The Jaguars won, but only saw a 3.7 percentage point increase.
The loud Jets suffered a bad loss, not only because it was to a playoff competitor at home, but they also showed no offensive improvement. If anything, they declined without Thomas Jones(notes). The Jets suffered a 35-point percentage point drop; victories by division rivals Patriots and Dolphins, and wild-card competitors Texans, Titans, Ravens and Steelers, all took its toll on the Jets. The Dolphins jumped nearly 25 percentage points thanks to their win and the Jets’ loss. The Patriots also had a nice jump, up 16 percentage points thanks to their impressive offensive display.
The Ravens got a big win that improved their playoff chances 6.7 percentage points. They did not improve as much as you might expect because the Steelers also won a close game and improved 5.8 points. With both the Ravens and Steelers winning, the Bengals saw their chances plummet 38 points. Like the Jets, the Bengals suffered due to a loss and victories by division rivals and AFC South wild-card competitors. Cincinnati also has one of the toughest schedules in the league.
The Chargers have started slowly yet again, but AccuScore still strongly favors them. They saw their playoff chances drop 7.7 points, but they are still the 77-percent favorite to win the division. The Chiefs improved 6.7 points, and while their explosive young players Jamaal Charles(notes), Dexter McCluster(notes) and Javier Arenas(notes) delivered big plays, the offense was overall very weak and could not score in the second half. The Raiders stumbled out of the gate and saw their chances already dip nearly 14 points as there are too many strong wild-card competitors in the AFC. Denver dropped 4.2 points for the same reasons.
The Seahawks got a huge win over the 49ers and saw their playoff chances jump more than 25 percentage points. Their defense, one of the worst units last season, looked much improved, at least for one week. The Cardinals also got a win over the Rams and while the offense may average 7-10 points less without Kurt Warner(notes), their underrated defense can still keep them in competition for the division. The main reason why Seattle and Arizona saw big jumps in playoff probability was the weak performance of Indianapolis Colts jersey
San Francisco. Its offense was a flop and with trouble brewing early in S.F., the Niners’ playoff chances were cut in half.
The Cowboys’ loss to the Redskins cost Dallas dearly with a 17.6 percentage point drop. Road losses usually are not that damaging, but ones within the division hurt. Surprisingly, the Redskins did not see an improvement after their win. They weren’t impressive offensively and their ability to put up points this year, even with Donovan McNabb(notes), is questionable. The big winner in the division was the Giants who defeated the Panthers and benefited from losses suffered by the Eagles and Cowboys.
The Saints’ offense didn’t explode in Week 1, but their playoff chances rose 5.5 points because of their win against the Vikings and the Falcons’ loss to the Steelers. The Falcons are the Saints’ primary division rival. The Falcons’ offense was ineffective. Things will improve when they face weaker defenses, but they still do not look significantly improved from last year. Atlanta’s loss cost them nine percentage points. The Buccaneers improved 6.5 points with their win over the Browns and, more importantly, the struggles of the Panthers. Carolina hoped its turnover problems left with Jake Delhomme(notes) but with Matt Moore(notes) looking awful in Week 1 and only rookie Jimmy Clausen(notes) waiting in the wings, turnovers by the QB could do this team in again.
Green Bay and Minnesota will compete for the NFC North all season long and head-to-head matchups will likely determine the outcome. The Packers are currently 55-percent favorites at home vs. Minnesota in Week 7 but the Vikings are 66-percent favorites at home vs. the Dallas Cowboys jersey
Packers in Week 11 as Sidney Rice(notes) should be back by then. With the overall edge going to the Vikings, they are still the 50-percent favorite to win the division vs. 43 percent for Green Bay. Chicago and Detroit are not expected to make a serious playoff run with just a 6.8 percent combined chance of winning the division.